Monday, July 02, 2007

Better Than Friday...And Then Some

The freight train continued to roll along today. Several of the stocks in the portfolio set new highs but a bunch of them moved higher and are close to a breakout as well. This is favorable as the market indices are still behind the June 1 highs. We want our stocks to run ahead of the market and they are doing that. This concept is critical to stock selection and outperformance. RIMM exploded for another $14 and a new high, PCU blew past the old high as did OSG, CVX, RDSA, DHR, T, & STRA. SCHW, SBS, MTW, TU, LTR, MAN, TS, LECO, GOOG, & RL, to name a few, got close and are on the verge. Look at some of these charts and its obvious that there is great strength underpinning this market.

RIMM and AAPL have been the dominant stories lately. RIMM kept going today, AAPL sold off moderately. This wasn't a particularly good sign on the first trading day after the big hype-phone launch. The numbers over the weekend were great so I'm not sure what the market wants here but it could be a signal that this one got ahead of itself. However, T, the exclusive carrier for the hype-phone did set a new high. So something happened over the weekend that T holders liked but not AAPL. The gap should narrow one way or another.

RIMM and AAPL have caused a sensation and its playing out in the provider market. As mentioned, T set a new high and acts well. Other winners this year that we hold or are buying are AMX, CTL, TU, PHI, & VIP. Even the rather dead VZ acts ok. The sensation to buy and use phone devices that also transmit email and allow for web surfing create an income stream for the providers and is a rapidly growing business. This is a trend to hang onto as these companies are BIG and promote/advertise heavily. There's no target in my book for where these stocks can go but they are clearly mainstays in this market. Its important that stocks in a group confirm eachother and in this case we have stocks in related groups confirming eachother as well. As much as I would love to take some RIMM or AAPL off the table I believe there is much more to this move. Great stocks are hard to come by and since we have some of the best we are going to try to be patient and let them develop further. Sort of reminds me of the joke about the papa bull and the baby bull standing on a hilltop...

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