Tiring

The sloppy trading continued today. In fact, it leans a little bearish when lots of strong stocks were up and setting new highs and most seemed to fade by the end of the day. The fact that the terrific results from GOOG, AAPL, and MSFT didn't supercharge the NASDAQ is a troublesome issue. The fact that new highs have been declining somewhat is also troublesome. The fact that the NYSE advance decline line has been decelarating is also troublesome. The fact that we have been in a bull market and have broken out to new highs recently and the market feels like it needs to take a breather is quite acceptable. Net net, I think we will be weak but within the context of an uptrend.
Finally got something nice from ISE. But, the fact that neither CME nor BOT nor ICE rallied with sympathetic strength on this news is...ok, we'll use the word only once more...troublesome. I think we'll give them our stock tomorrow. Can't see it getting better than this.
One more troublesome - the Yankees. This team can't get out of its own way. Huge payroll and they are not playing well at all. The starting pitching stinks, the relief is as bad, the hitting has been great but that's not helping much. Guess I'm getting a little concerned that everyone says its early in the season so don't worry. When does it stop being early in the season? Well at least they can't lose tonight!

Apple, Yankee Pitching

Ok, Apple did it in a big way. I love being right and printing money! Lots of bears got slammed when the stock rose sharply. It was great until it faded about 4 pts off its high but still up 3.49 on the day. A little disappointing.

Phil "the savior" Hughes makes his major league debut tonight and the Yanks need him to be awesome. I'm much better picking stocks than pitchers but this will be interesting. I hope!

The market is in a rest phase now. For every WST there's a CBT. Of course there are more KNOL and AMX and PCLN in our portfolios than losers but the list still feels a little sloppy. It could last a few weeks, it could be over tomorrow. But the Apple news should have jump started the market more than it did. Nothing has changed in the big picture but unless MSFT earnings (up more than expected) get the animal spirits going tomorrow it may be a good idea to take a long weekend.

Apple

Not to digress into too much of a short term thought process but many have been saying that ipod shipments have softened and that Apple may be facing some tougher times. There is no doubt that this cutting edge technology company will face tougher times - that goes with the territory - and there are some concerns with the delayed new op system and the new phone that is discounted to perfection. But earnings are due Wednesday this week and it's hard not to notice that the stock is a big winner today. Just a thought that stocks that are about to break down don't usually hold support (89, last week) and then rally strongly on increasing volume. Some portfolios in our disciplines hold this stock so I must recognize that I'm probably not objective enough in this case. But it feels like this one wants to go higher. Much higher. We'll know very soon.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter (article), will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter (article) serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Geller Capital Management, LLC. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

PM, cont'd

Into the strength on Friday we cut back on two of the biggest winners in portfolios that had large overweightings in these stocks. Happily, they have gone even higher. Of course we want to max out on returns but part of good portfolio mgmt is to notice overweightings and pare back when the "gettin's good". Its alway better to be on the outside wishing you were in than on the inside wishing you were out. And besides, we still have big positions in these names to begin with. If the market tacks on a few more % points, we will lighten on other overweights and outperformers - while the "gettin's good"!
I would expect the S&P to make it to the old highs on this move - 1553.10 to be exact - and that's only 4.5%. That would call for a new reassessment as some backing and filling should occur at those levels +/-. My take is that the market is looking past the economic weakness that everyone is talking about. As long as the soft landing continues, so will prices. But good portfolio mgmt is never wrong!

Everything is Green!

Here it is, 10:17am NY time, and everything on my screen is green. Given the run-up in prices, thoughts turn to a runner of a different type. After a long and successful run, an athlete must rest. The market is in many ways no different as buyers have to reassess and recommitt; sellers have to reload. There is little doubt from my perspective that the market has a great deal of upside from these levels however, portfolio management is a must. Now is the time to pare back on some outsized growth and reduce large overweights while keeping an eye on the health of the rest of the portfolio. If this proves wrong and the market soars we will miss out on little. If right, it could add a little spice as we'll be in shape for the next rebalance.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter (article), will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter (article) serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Geller Capital Management, LLC. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

On to the Summit!

Now that the SP500 has taken out the Feb 2006 highs only one set of obstacles remain - the peaks set in year 2000 from March thru September. In previous reports I have written about time spent forming tops and bottoms and how they are often symmetrical. They are easy compared to the task at hand: analyzing the supply and demand of the current scenario. Yes demand is great and that's how we have gotten to the prices we are at today. But what about supply and those holders patiently waiting for a breakeven? They definitly exist but are they meaningful? Was the last selloff in March some of that supply coming off the table? Does it even matter? I say they do, that they are not done, but we cannot determine how much they will affect prices. But, what is in our control is stock selection and risk management. If we listen to our stocks and limit the bad effect they will have on our portfolio then we have a decent opportunity to outperform and profit greatly from the coming bull market. And likely, there will be some sharp pullbacks until we clear the 1500-1550 range as those holders make their presence known.
Please visit the Geller Capital website for more information and our perspective on the new bull market in US stocks and the opportunities for investors.

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter (article), will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter (article) serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Geller Capital Management, LLC. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

TGIF, Intelligent Diversification

After Wednesday's weakness I wrote that the uptrend would resume soon. Yeah, like the next day. Volume was low yesterday and that suggests a lack of serious demand...or a lack of supply that any buying will blow through. Today its mixed but the leaders are doing their job of leading. PCU, CI, MCD, to name a few, are all in the portfolio and continue to act well.

In some cases diversification is a proxy on ignorance. In others, diversification is an intelligent way to invest since it provides exposure to different areas and on any given day, week, etc, the action will come from somewhere. A concentrated portfolio runs the risk on missing out on sectors that do well. A good example might be the materials sector. It's not a mainstream area, names don't roll off the tongue easily, and its easy to pass on stocks where you lack enough knowledge. But, the benefit of our quantitative, systematic approach is to select stocks that make it by the numbers and buy the ones that act the best. This put a ton of materials (pun intended!) stocks on our books. Voila, one of the best acting groups and we have some. Intelligent diversification. There's a lot to be said for it!

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter (article), will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter (article) serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Geller Capital Management, LLC. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Back From Blog Vacation

Over the last two weeks, the market has continued sideways to higher. Of the majors, only the NYSE and Dow Utilities set a new high. After today's selloff, that's beginning to look more like a negative divergence rather than leadership. However, after some time the gains will come again. Since the February smash the market filled in nicely and recovered the lost ground. I believe that is just the beginning but its nice to see everyone kept on their toes!

The Fed statement is nothing new and tells us little. Listen to your stocks, instead. PCU, PCLN, X, RL, KNOL, to name a few.