Stocks to avoid...
Geller Capital manages equity strategies according to a successful model that includes trading once a month. This feature has numerous benefits and one or two drawbacks. For one, we don't agonize over daily moves and we let our positions "do their thing". When we trade, we look at stocks bought 6 months ago and sell the ones that are "losers". We also review the stocks that we bought within the last 6 months and sell the "losers" there as well. And, as we build our buy list we avoid the "losers". So what's a "loser"?
If we buy a stock and it is not profitable after roughly 6 months, we generally don't want to tie up our money any longer and we sell. If we buy a stock and it drops more than 10% within the first 6 months, we carefully review and determine if it should be sold. Either way, if it's not profitable at the 6 month mark, out it goes.
But the place to make the biggest impact is in avoiding losers in the first place. Lately, I have applied a simple test to any stock that appears on a buy list. If that stock has failed to make a new high and/or there is still an overhang of stock that traded higher in the past, we want to avoid that. GE is a good example. Although GE looks ok today, it will face headwinds all the way up as there are sellers waiting to break even from here to $60. This stock will likely be a laggard and I will generally avoid this type of position in favor of stocks that have broken to new all time highs and have no large supply of stock waiting for a breakeven. Those types of stocks are leaders and move more freely with better upside potential. Good examples of this are GD or LMT. Compare long term charts of the stocks and see for yourself. Many stocks that have overhead resistance or have already cleared that resistance pause(d) as they reach(ed) these levels of natural supply. But once they clear the hurdle, the stock could be a much faster runner. History has told us that leaders produce better portfolio results than laggards!
Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Geller Capital Management, LLC) will be profitable. Please remember to contact Geller Capital Management, LLC if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request.
If we buy a stock and it is not profitable after roughly 6 months, we generally don't want to tie up our money any longer and we sell. If we buy a stock and it drops more than 10% within the first 6 months, we carefully review and determine if it should be sold. Either way, if it's not profitable at the 6 month mark, out it goes.
But the place to make the biggest impact is in avoiding losers in the first place. Lately, I have applied a simple test to any stock that appears on a buy list. If that stock has failed to make a new high and/or there is still an overhang of stock that traded higher in the past, we want to avoid that. GE is a good example. Although GE looks ok today, it will face headwinds all the way up as there are sellers waiting to break even from here to $60. This stock will likely be a laggard and I will generally avoid this type of position in favor of stocks that have broken to new all time highs and have no large supply of stock waiting for a breakeven. Those types of stocks are leaders and move more freely with better upside potential. Good examples of this are GD or LMT. Compare long term charts of the stocks and see for yourself. Many stocks that have overhead resistance or have already cleared that resistance pause(d) as they reach(ed) these levels of natural supply. But once they clear the hurdle, the stock could be a much faster runner. History has told us that leaders produce better portfolio results than laggards!
Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Geller Capital Management, LLC) will be profitable. Please remember to contact Geller Capital Management, LLC if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request.
posted by David Geller at 4:51 PM
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