Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Market update...

January has been less than spectacular but not to worry. This is simply a pause. The NYSE composite and corresponding advance decline line have been the guiding light and they still look fine. I thought the breakout last week was the real thing but the market sold off hard immediately. However, the next 3 days made no further progress lower and today prices went right back towards the high. This is the 7th week the market has rested. Its time. Written 1.30.07

WWIN, hello manager

Holders of WWIN got a nice treat today and we are holders. we got a nice rally in WWIN from 22 and the current correction was kind of getting to us. But WWIN wasn't hurting us so we just waited. Yesterday was a nice gain but today gave us a real jolt and we like that. Good lesson: good stock, profitable, not hurting the portfolio, not acting badly, just resting, these are very easy to sell. Seasoned investors know that its just a matter of time for those babies to start moving again. This leads to the next topic...

Registered Investment Advisors. A prospective client asked me why would he need one, why not just do it himself. It's a great question and since I am a registered investment advisor (ria) I have an answer. As a professional investor, it's my objective to grow the assets of the people that entrust their funds to me. Investors should be able to count on their advisor to faithfully and successfully implement their stated investment strategies. Individuals will invariably get busy with their lives and lose track of such details as stock selection and performance. Investors should be able to continue doing that which is important to them or that which they are more skillful at doing and leave the tasks they are less qualified at doing for professionals. Medicine, law, auto repair, and carpentry are just a few such professions that come to mind. Investing is right up there with them. As a seasoned investor with a successful track record who acts as a fiduciary for clients, most of my clients are much better off with the leadership than without. WWIN is a great example: selection of a relatively obscure name with excellent numbers, a profitable trade to date but rather than lose faith and bail, in two short days of trading that stock is right back among the top names on the board. A professional investor will know when to hold such stocks more often than not.

Just a thought.

Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Geller Capital Management, LLC) will be profitable. Please remember to contact Geller Capital Management, LLC if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request.

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Stocks to avoid...

Geller Capital manages equity strategies according to a successful model that includes trading once a month. This feature has numerous benefits and one or two drawbacks. For one, we don't agonize over daily moves and we let our positions "do their thing". When we trade, we look at stocks bought 6 months ago and sell the ones that are "losers". We also review the stocks that we bought within the last 6 months and sell the "losers" there as well. And, as we build our buy list we avoid the "losers". So what's a "loser"?

If we buy a stock and it is not profitable after roughly 6 months, we generally don't want to tie up our money any longer and we sell. If we buy a stock and it drops more than 10% within the first 6 months, we carefully review and determine if it should be sold. Either way, if it's not profitable at the 6 month mark, out it goes.

But the place to make the biggest impact is in avoiding losers in the first place. Lately, I have applied a simple test to any stock that appears on a buy list. If that stock has failed to make a new high and/or there is still an overhang of stock that traded higher in the past, we want to avoid that. GE is a good example. Although GE looks ok today, it will face headwinds all the way up as there are sellers waiting to break even from here to $60. This stock will likely be a laggard and I will generally avoid this type of position in favor of stocks that have broken to new all time highs and have no large supply of stock waiting for a breakeven. Those types of stocks are leaders and move more freely with better upside potential. Good examples of this are GD or LMT. Compare long term charts of the stocks and see for yourself. Many stocks that have overhead resistance or have already cleared that resistance pause(d) as they reach(ed) these levels of natural supply. But once they clear the hurdle, the stock could be a much faster runner. History has told us that leaders produce better portfolio results than laggards!

Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Geller Capital Management, LLC) will be profitable. Please remember to contact Geller Capital Management, LLC if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services, or if you want to impose, add, or to modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment advisory services. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request.

Back from blog vacation...

Since my last post on 11/26/06 I have been on blog vacation. Much to do and easy to forget about the blog. But, I am back on the job and will be updating regularly.

The market has a terrific feel to it and I will be writing a lot about that. Some topics to follow are:
the big push of private equity funds into the listed market and what that means for stocks
the stock market and why this could be the beginning of a secular bull market
why technical analysis never fails us
what are the types of stocks to buy now
how we manage the portfolio
our philosophy

Here's to staying in touch!