Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Deomcrats win! ?.

Perhaps the title should include "so what?". Of course, I hope they do more good than harm and it probably is time for a change in leadership. But, will they lead or simply get entrenched in power and ultimately mired in scandal? It should be noted that politicians spent $1.6BB on advertising for their campaigns this year. That is something along the lines of a 150% increase over 5 years ago. That strikes me as an indicator that this running for office thing is BIG business with much at stake for the players that goes well beyond the morals and ethics of representation and lawmaking. So perhaps the question should be "how long will it take them to get entrenched in power and ultimately mired in scandal?". Either way we know the answer and in 10 years or so the pendulum will swing back to Republicans.
The more significant question is does it matter to the market? Yes and no. For starters, the net effect on defense spending is clearly a big one to watch. And the tax question is a big one to watch, too. Why do Democrats so desperately want to raise our taxes and why do so many people agree with that position? The change in control of the house will lead to similar but subtle changes in economic policy that will represent potential for greater and smaller profits from industry to industry and company to company. All investors can do is carefully watch their stocks for signs of distribution that could lead to lower prices or vice versa. And, keep an open and flexible eye for new opportunities.
There are great looking stocks that we are watching based upon our various screening methodologies. Their performance has been excellent and encouraging about the health of this overall market. Various indicators suggest that we are in a new bull market and that the long side will reward significantly. However, even the strongest bull markets are not straight up affairs and always present numerous challenges. As my mentor Bernie used to say, "keep your eye on the ball and the ball is money".
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2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

George Will sums the 2006 November elections up nicely:

http://jewishworldreview.com/cols/will110906.php3

"About $2.6 billion was spent on the 468 House and Senate races. (Scandalized? Don't be. Americans spend that much on chocolate every two months)."

3:29 PM  
Blogger David Geller said...

Thanks for your comment and the updated amount spent on advertising by candidates. It's as scandalous as Babe Ruth making more money than the President. As he said at the time, "I hit more home runs than he did!" It's not scandalous at all, it just shows how big the stakes are that candidates are pumping up the volume considerably. And given the choices, I'd opt for chocolate any day!

6:10 PM  

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